ESSEN, GERMANY – According to the latest Global Automotive Market forecast released by R. L. Polk & Co., demand for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles will continue to decline, perhaps stabilizing at the very earliest by the end of 2009. Based on Polk’s forecast, global registrations aren’t expected to return to pre-economic crisis levels until 2012.

According to Polk forecasters, global demand for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles will fall by about 18 percent to 53.3 million units in 2009 as compared to last year, its lowest point since 1998. It is expected 2010 will be a year of moderate recovery, during which demand will rise by less than seven percent. Based on the forecast, a strong double-digit recovery in global demand will occur in 2011 and 2012, at which point the demand generated by the improved market conditions will be reinforced by car buyers who have postponed replacement purchases during the economic crisis.

The current economic crisis will certainly leave a lasting mark. The new 2009 and 2010 forecasts are 25 percent, or more than 18 million units, lower than pre-crisis forecasts. Light vehicles sales through 2015 will be 80 million units lower than what Polk expected in the late summer of 2008.

Polk researchers examined the long-term impact of the current crisis and determined that its impact varies considerably from market to market. Due to the negative impact on demand trends in each country, long-term global demand will drop by over five percent a year, or about five million cars.

The findings show:

• Countries that have been hit by the housing bubble in addition to the economic crisis, such as the U.S., Spain and the UK, have seen a slump in long-term demand trends
• A negative impact is not expected on the long-term trend in other saturated markets
• While emerging markets continue to have enormous potential, growth will be put on hold for about two years, so that long-term volume forecasts will be met later than expected

R. L. Polk & Co.'s current forecasts are based on the following conditions and assumptions:

• The global economy will hit bottom in mid-2009 and will start to recover by the end of 2009. Due to the unique nature of this crisis, however, a recovery will take much longer than in earlier recessions.
• Global economic growth will be negative 0.5 percent in 2009, before rising to 1.5 percent in 2010 and 3.5 percent in 2012. The long-term growth target is about three percent.
• The price of oil will rise at a very moderate pace, from USD 45 a barrel in 2009 to about USD 110 a barrel in 2020. This should be seen as a normal trend, although cyclical fluctuations, e.g. as a result of speculation, cannot be ruled out.
• We do not expect the crisis to precipitate a fundamental shift in private car ownership. Car ownership continues to have a high social value, especially in emerging markets.

The impact of these new conditions and the resulting change in demand by manufacturer, model and plant will be reflected in the new Polk ProCar™ Report in April.